Last updated: November 5, 2026. This article is for general information only and is not financial, tax or business advice. Forecasts are estimates and actual results will differ, so base decisions on your own sales data and consult a qualified advisor. This guide is independent and is not affiliated with the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. retail sales in November and December 2026 to grow 4.2% over last year, reaching $1.013 trillion. That is a solid but measured season, and the NRF says retailers are taking a cautious approach to hiring. For a small shop, the headline matters less than what it signals: shoppers are still spending, but they are watching prices, starting early and leaning on gift cards.
What NRF forecast
In its October 15, 2026 release, NRF defined the holiday season as November 1 through December 31 and forecast:
| Measure | NRF figure |
|---|---|
| Retail sales growth, Nov–Dec 2026 | 4.2% over 2025 |
| Total holiday spending | $1.013 trillion |
| 2025 comparison | 3.1% growth to $972 billion |
| Seasonal hiring | 325,000 to 375,000 workers (last year’s estimate: 356,000) |
Two details matter when you read these numbers. First, NRF’s total excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants so that the figure reflects core retail. Second, the release does not say whether the 4.2% is adjusted for inflation, so do not assume it means more units sold. NRF says its model draws on consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, inflation and recent monthly retail sales.
What shoppers say they plan to do
NRF’s holiday data page adds survey findings (the page does not give sample size or method, so treat them as directional):
- 43% of holiday shoppers plan to start before November.
- 56% say the state of the economy will affect their holiday spending plans.
- 47% want gift cards, ahead of clothing (44%), books and other media (25%) and personal care or beauty (24%).
What this means for a small retailer
1. Plan for an early, longer season
If nearly half of shoppers start before November, waiting for Black Friday to launch your promotions leaves sales on the table. Our guide on why seasonal marketing now starts months earlier explains the pattern, and the Small Business Saturday marketing plan gives a 30-day countdown for local shops.
2. Buy inventory with a margin of caution
A 4.2% forecast for the whole industry is not a forecast for your store. Use last year’s sales by week, your current traffic and your cash position to set order quantities, and favor reorderable items over large one-time bets. Our piece on the hidden cash flow crisis is worth a read before you commit to big holiday purchases.
3. Make gift cards easy
With gift cards the most requested gift in NRF’s survey, make sure yours are simple to buy in-store and online, easy to display near the register, and clearly described. Check your payment provider’s rules for expiration and fees, which vary by state and provider.
4. Hire carefully and on paper
NRF’s seasonal hiring estimate is in line with last year, reflecting caution among retailers. If you bring on temporary help, review the paperwork steps in our seasonal employee payroll checklist and confirm requirements with the IRS or your state labor agency.
5. Cover the online side too
NRF’s release does not break out online sales, but other forecasts do. Adobe’s projection and what it means for your calendar is covered in our holiday ecommerce forecast article, and local shops should also update opening hours on search listings with the Google Business Profile holiday hours guide.
A simple holiday planning checklist
- Pull last year’s weekly sales and mark your peak weeks.
- Set an inventory budget and keep a cash reserve for January.
- Schedule promotions to start in early November, not just Black Friday week.
- Prepare gift cards, shipping cutoff dates and return policy signage.
- Decide staffing by week and complete hiring paperwork before day one.
- Update store hours online.
Limits of the forecast
NRF warns that shoppers are weighing gas prices, inflation, interest rates and elevated consumer debt. A forecast is a modeled estimate; weather, a sudden price shock or a shift in consumer confidence could move results in either direction. Watch your own daily sales in the first two weeks of November and adjust.
FAQ
What is NRF’s 2026 holiday sales forecast?
NRF forecasts 4.2% growth in November and December retail sales over 2025, totaling $1.013 trillion, excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
How many seasonal workers does NRF expect retailers to hire?
NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000, compared with an estimated 356,000 last year.
Does the NRF forecast include online sales?
Yes, as part of total retail, but the release we reviewed does not give a separate online figure.
Sources
- National Retail Federation press release, “NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient” (October 15, 2026).
- National Retail Federation, Winter Holidays data and trends page.
