António Guterres’s second term as United Nations Secretary-General ends on December 31, 2026, and after nearly a year of formal candidate dialogues and three separate Security Council straw polls, the UN still doesn’t know who will replace him. The most recent poll, held September 18, 2026, saw Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan retake a narrow lead — but with enough opposition among the Council’s five permanent members that diplomats are openly saying the race remains wide open. Here’s how the process actually works, who’s in contention, and why an obscure diplomatic ritual involving colored ballots is the thing to watch over the next few months.
Key Takeaways
- Guterres’s term ends December 31, 2026. The Security Council must recommend a successor by resolution before the General Assembly can vote to appoint them.
- Eight candidates remained active as of the third Security Council straw poll on September 18, 2026; none has secured the nine “encourage” votes needed while avoiding a discouraging vote from a permanent member.
- Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) led the first and third polls; Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana) led the second. No candidate has led all three.
- The UN has never had a woman Secretary-General in its 80-year history, and several member states are explicitly pushing for that to change in this selection.
- A fourth straw poll is expected after the General Assembly’s high-level week concludes on September 28, 2026, with Greece taking over the Council presidency in October.
How the UN Actually Picks a Secretary-General
Most coverage of this race skips the mechanics entirely, which makes the outcome look arbitrary. It isn’t — it follows a defined, if unusually opaque, process rooted in Article 97 of the UN Charter and General Assembly Resolution 79/327, adopted September 5, 2025.
- Nomination: Member states formally nominate candidates, who must each submit a vision statement, a curriculum vitae, and campaign financing disclosures. The process opened with a joint letter from the presidents of the General Assembly and Security Council on November 25, 2025.
- Public dialogues: Throughout 2026, the General Assembly held webcast interactive dialogues where every candidate answered questions from member states — sessions ran in April, June, and August, followed by a candidate town hall on July 23 and a final round through the General Assembly’s high-level week.
- Security Council straw polls: Behind closed doors, the 15 Council members — five permanent (the P5: the US, UK, France, Russia, and China) and ten elected members — cast a private, unsigned ballot for each candidate marked “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” Ballots are shredded afterward and no formal tally is published, though details typically leak.
- Security Council recommendation: Once a candidate clears the threshold — effectively nine encouraging votes with no discouraging vote from a P5 member, since any of the five can exercise an informal veto at this stage — the Council recommends that person to the General Assembly by resolution.
- General Assembly vote: All 193 member states then vote to formally appoint the Council’s recommended candidate, historically a formality once the Council has settled on one name.
The P5’s informal veto power at the straw-poll stage is the single most important mechanic in the entire process, and it’s why a candidate can lead in raw “encourage” votes and still not be close to being recommended.
The Candidates
Eight candidates remained on the ballot for the third straw poll. Most come from Latin America and the Caribbean, reflecting an informal regional-rotation norm — this is widely seen as “that region’s turn,” since no Secretary-General has come from Latin America since the UN’s founding.
- Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) — Secretary-General of UNCTAD, the UN’s trade and development body.
- Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana) — career diplomat and former Guyanese government minister; formally nominated June 15, 2026.
- Rafael Grossi (Argentina) — Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
- María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador) — former President of the UN General Assembly.
- Macky Sall (Senegal) — former President of Senegal and former Chair of the African Union.
- Michelle Bachelet (Chile) — twice President of Chile and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights; originally nominated by Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, though Chile withdrew its formal backing in March 2026.
- Ivonne A-Baki (Ecuador) — diplomat and former Ecuadorian government minister.
- Olara Otunnu (Uganda) — former UN Under-Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict.
One candidate, Virginia Gamba (Maldives), withdrew from contention on March 25, 2026.
Three Straw Polls, Three Different Leaders
The Security Council has now held three straw polls, and the results tell a story of genuine deadlock rather than a candidate quietly building momentum.
| Poll Date | Leader | Encourage Votes | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 (1st poll) | Rebeca Grynspan | 10 | Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (9) |
| August 21, 2026 (2nd poll) | Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett | 8 | Grynspan & Grossi (tied, 7) |
| September 18, 2026 (3rd poll) | Rebeca Grynspan | 9 | Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (8) |
Grynspan technically cleared the nine-vote threshold in the third poll, but diplomatic reporting on the ballot breakdown suggests her five “discourage” votes likely include at least one of the two permanent members widely seen as least supportive of her candidacy — a signal that matters far more than the raw count, given the P5’s effective veto. Rodrigues Birkett, by contrast, drew fewer discourage votes (three) despite finishing second, which is part of why analysts describe this as a genuine two-candidate contest rather than a single clear front-runner.
Why the Gender Question Keeps Coming Up
In 80 years, the United Nations has never had a woman as Secretary-General — all nine officeholders to date have been men. That history has become an explicit talking point in this cycle. Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos is among the prominent voices publicly calling for a woman to be selected this time, and several of the leading candidates — Grynspan, Rodrigues Birkett, Espinosa, Bachelet, and A-Baki — are women, meaning the eventual outcome could plausibly break that pattern for the first time regardless of which of them prevails. It is not a formal criterion in the selection process, but it has shaped the diplomatic conversation around this cycle more than in any previous selection.
What Happens Next
The General Assembly’s high-level week — the annual gathering of world leaders in New York — concluded September 28, 2026. Diplomats widely expect a fourth straw poll shortly afterward, once the Security Council’s attention returns fully to the selection process. Greece assumes the rotating Council presidency in October 2026 and may be the one to announce whether the members have converged on a recommendation.
From there, the mechanical steps are fixed even if their timing isn’t: the Council needs a candidate who draws nine or more encourage votes with no P5 discourage vote, at which point it recommends that person to the General Assembly by resolution, and the Assembly votes to formally appoint them. Because Guterres’s term expires December 31, 2026, there is real pressure to reach a recommendation well before year-end to allow for a transition — though the UN has, in past cycles, cut this timeline closer than institutions would prefer.
This selection process is unfolding against a backdrop of significant strain on the broader international system the next Secretary-General will inherit — from the diplomatic aftermath of September’s Trump-Xi summit in Washington to the unresolved Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, both of which will land squarely on the next Secretary-General’s desk within weeks of taking office.
FAQ
When will we know who the next UN Secretary-General is?
There’s no fixed date. The Security Council must first converge on a single candidate through additional straw polls — a fourth is expected after September 28, 2026 — before recommending that person to the General Assembly. Given Guterres’s term ends December 31, 2026, a decision is widely expected before year-end, but the UN has pushed past its own informal deadlines in previous selections.
Who is currently leading the race?
Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica led both the first (July 30) and third (September 18) Security Council straw polls, with Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana leading the second (August 21) and finishing a close second in the other two. Neither has yet cleared the informal threshold of nine encourage votes with no opposition from a permanent Council member.
What is a Security Council straw poll?
It’s an informal, unsigned internal vote the 15-member Security Council uses to gauge support for Secretary-General candidates before a formal recommendation. Each member marks each candidate “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion” on a private ballot; the ballots are destroyed afterward, though the general results typically become public through diplomatic sources.
Could the UN get its first woman Secretary-General?
It’s possible. Several of the leading candidates — including both frontrunners from the most recent straw polls — are women, and prominent figures including former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos have publicly called for the UN to select a woman after 80 years and nine consecutive male Secretaries-General. It is not a formal requirement of the process.
Does the Security Council’s recommendation guarantee appointment?
In practice, yes. Once the Security Council formally recommends a single candidate, the General Assembly vote to appoint that person has historically been a formality — the real contest happens earlier, inside the Council’s straw-poll process.
The Bottom Line
Three straw polls into the process, the race to succeed António Guterres remains a genuine toss-up between Rebeca Grynspan and Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, with neither able to clear the Security Council’s informal veto threshold. The mechanics matter here more than the headlines: whoever eventually wins won’t be decided by raw vote counts, but by which candidate the five permanent Council members can all live with. With the General Assembly’s high-level week now concluded and Greece taking over the Council presidency in October, the next straw poll — likely the fourth — is the number to watch.
This article is for informational purposes and reflects publicly reported diplomatic developments current as of late September 2026. The Security Council selection process is conducted privately, and details of straw poll results are based on diplomatic sources rather than official UN publication.
