When considering a real estate investment, it’s crucial to account for various factors such as cost of living, crime rates, climate risks, and property taxes. As you plan your property investments for the coming years, researching the market trends now can help you avoid costly mistakes later. While predicting the market with absolute certainty is impossible, current trends offer valuable insights.
To guide you in your decision-making, real estate experts identified seven states where buying property might be particularly risky in the next five years. Here’s a look at these states and the reasons they might be best avoided.
1. California
California’s allure—beautiful landscapes, vibrant culture, and pleasant weather—makes it a desirable place to live. However, real estate broker Yawar Charlie highlights several concerns. “High living costs are just the beginning. California is plagued by wildfires and droughts, which add significant risks and expenses for homeowners,” he said.
Rachel Stringer, a Realtor at Raleigh Realty, pointed out that the tech-driven housing market in areas like the Bay Area has driven property prices to extreme levels. “Demand consistently exceeds supply, which, combined with slow wage growth, makes affordability increasingly problematic. The rising cost of living could make mortgage payments untenable for many,” she added.
2. Florida
Florida’s sunny appeal is offset by severe climate risks. According to Stringer, “The state is highly vulnerable to hurricanes and rising sea levels due to climate change. This leads to escalating insurance premiums and potential property damage, especially in coastal areas.” Rebuilding costs and disruptions from storms further complicate property ownership in Florida.
3. Illinois
Illinois, especially Chicago, faces significant challenges. Charlie notes, “The state suffers from high property taxes and severe financial issues, including high crime rates and budget deficits. These financial strains result in reduced essential services and increased taxes, making the state less appealing for potential homeowners.”
4. Louisiana
Louisiana, known for its vibrant culture and cuisine, is also struggling with climate-related risks. Tony Mariotti, founder of RubyHome, warns, “The state is highly prone to hurricanes and flooding, leading to high insurance costs and potential property damage. Additionally, Louisiana faces low job growth and economic diversification, which affects long-term investment attractiveness.”
5. New Jersey
New Jersey’s real estate market is under pressure from several factors. “High property taxes and a decline in major corporations affecting job availability are major concerns,” Charlie explains. “The state also has some of the highest health insurance premiums in the country, adding financial stress. Combined with traffic congestion, especially for commuters to New York City, the state may be less attractive for property buyers.”
6. New York
New York’s property market is notoriously expensive, and Charlie points out additional issues. “Beyond the high cost of living and property taxes, New York City’s aging infrastructure is a significant problem. The subway system’s delays and breakdowns can make daily commutes frustrating. The pandemic has accelerated the trend of remote work, reducing the need to live in or near the city and leading many to seek housing in the suburbs or rural areas.”
7. West Virginia
West Virginia faces economic challenges, particularly due to the decline of the coal industry. “The shrinking job market has economically devastated many parts of the state,” Stringer says. “As employment opportunities dry up, the population decreases, leading to a reduced demand for housing. This situation makes it difficult for homeowners to find buyers willing to pay a fair price.”
Consider Your Property Purchase Carefully
When considering where to invest in real estate over the next five years, it’s important to weigh not only current market conditions but also potential future risks. States like California, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and West Virginia present significant challenges that could impact property values and ownership costs. By staying informed and cautious, you can make smarter investment decisions and avoid costly pitfalls in your real estate ventures.
